“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” —Mike Tyson
Each day we wake up to something new. Timing of when restrictions will be lifted. Measures needed to keep guests safe. Capacity limits for our facilities. This is the situation we find ourselves in.
The future has always been uncertain, but we are now more keenly aware of that fact than ever. AZA organizations certainly hope they can reopen soon, they hope that the public will return, but they don’t know when or how these hopes may come to pass—and hope is not a good strategy. They must be prepared for any one of a seemingly infinite number of permutations.
In the service of helping our AZA partners envision a range of potential futures, Zoo Advisors has developed a Dynamic Scenario Projection Modeling Tool. This tool, which is free to download and use, is designed to assess multiple financial scenarios over a 30-month planning horizon. It will help to answer a range of questions about key factors your zoo or aquarium needs to manage and adjust in order to strengthen your financial sustainability.
While most of you have already done some financial projections, this tool offers a way to modify multiple variables and assumptions, testing what your bottom line could look like this year and through 2021.
To use the tool, you’ll need to plug in some data regarding your organization’s revenues, expenses, attendance, and membership for each of the last six quarters of operations. After that, you can start playing with variables including:
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Opening Date: You know you’ll re-open eventually, but when? What does it mean if you open in Q3 versus Q4 2020?
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Facility Capacity: Social distancing rules will mean your capacity will be lowered. How will it affect your organization if your maximum capacity is 50% versus 30%?
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Discounting: Many zoos and aquariums are considering discounting their admissions fees to entice visitors to come back, or to make up for shuttered indoor facilities. What effect will that have on your finances?
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On-Site Experiences & Attractions: How many (if any) of these revenue-generating activities can continue?
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Salaries/Wages/Personnel: What adjustments will be needed to stay solvent?
These are a few examples of the 28 line-item variables you’ll be able to modify and test to help create the projections. Depending on how you configure the variables, the model will correlate data and project outcomes based on your organization’s actual historical activities and present them clearly and concisely.
The tool includes detailed instructions about usage and we will also host a “What Will Your Finances Look Like?” webinar on Thursday, May 7th at 12:00 EDT to walk through financial scenario planning. Click here to register for that session.
As more information on what the ‘new tomorrow’ may look like and with your suggestions, we will provide updates and refinements to the model and share them with all who download it.
Please reach out to Zachary Winfield with any questions, feedback, or ideas at zwinfield@canopysp.com.
